Target Price Playground
MSI
$433.69
๐ข
MSI IV: 25.3% โ LOW
(-46.7% vs 30d avg of 47.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $485 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy shares and hold. Unlimited upside, full downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $433.69 ยท ฮ 1.00
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Stock
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MSI hits $485 by Jun 19: the long stock returns +$5,131 (11.8%) on $43,369 risked, vs $ (None%) for 100 shares on $.
๐ Expiry
Stock-only position โ no expiry. Target date is Jun 19.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MSI hits $485 by Jun 19
+$5,131
+11.8% on $43,369 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$43,369
If stock โ $0
Break-even
$433.69
+0.0% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
28%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
100.0 / 0.0 / 0.0
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MSI Price | Today | May 13 | Jun 12 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $347 (-20%) | -$8,674 | -$8,674 | -$8,674 |
| $369 (-15%) | -$6,505 | -$6,505 | -$6,505 |
| $390 (-10%) | -$4,337 | -$4,337 | -$4,337 |
| $412 (-5%) | -$2,168 | -$2,168 | -$2,168 |
| $425 (-2%) | -$867 | -$867 | -$867 |
| $434 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$0 | +$0 |
| $442 (+2%) | +$867 | +$867 | +$867 |
| $455 (+5%) | +$2,168 | +$2,168 | +$2,168 |
| $477 (+10%) | +$4,337 | +$4,337 | +$4,337 |
| $485 (+12%) โ target | +$5,131 | +$5,131 | +$5,131 |
| $499 (+15%) | +$6,505 | +$6,505 | +$6,505 |
| $520 (+20%) | +$8,674 | +$8,674 | +$8,674 |
Uses MSI's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.