Target Price Playground
MSI
$433.69
๐ข
MSI IV: 25.3% โ LOW
(-46.7% vs 30d avg of 47.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $475 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $433.69 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $410 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $8.03 ยท ฮ -0.26
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MSI hits $475 by Jun 19: the protective put returns +$3,328 (7.5%) on $44,172 risked, vs +$4,131 (9.5%) for 100 shares on $43,369. Options give 0.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MSI is at $475. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MSI hits $475 by Jun 19
+$3,328
+7.5% on $44,172 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$3,172
Put floors you at $410
Break-even
$441.72
+1.85% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
39%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
73.85 / -10.13 / 60.45
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MSI Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $347 (-20%) | -$3,369 | -$3,348 | -$3,284 | -$3,172 |
| $369 (-15%) | -$3,071 | -$3,165 | -$3,230 | -$3,172 |
| $390 (-10%) | -$2,451 | -$2,665 | -$2,929 | -$3,172 |
| $412 (-5%) | -$1,425 | -$1,696 | -$2,063 | -$2,971 |
| $425 (-2%) | -$614 | -$876 | -$1,215 | -$1,670 |
| $434 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | -$243 | -$536 | -$803 |
| $442 (+2%) | +$664 | +$449 | +$213 | +$64 |
| $455 (+5%) | +$1,742 | +$1,574 | +$1,420 | +$1,365 |
| $475 (+10%) โ target | +$3,503 | +$3,403 | +$3,338 | +$3,328 |
| $499 (+15%) | +$5,765 | +$5,720 | +$5,703 | +$5,702 |
| $520 (+20%) | +$7,893 | +$7,875 | +$7,871 | +$7,871 |
Uses MSI's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.