Target Price Playground
MSI
$433.69
๐ข
MSI IV: 25.3% โ LOW
(-46.7% vs 30d avg of 47.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $500 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $435 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $20.2 ยท ฮ 0.54
LONG PUT ยท $435 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $17.93 ยท ฮ -0.46
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MSI hits $500 by Jun 19: the long straddle returns +$2,687 (70.5%) on $3,813 risked, vs +$6,631 (15.3%) for 100 shares on $43,369. Options give 4.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MSI is at $500. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MSI hits $500 by Jun 19
+$2,687
+70.5% on $3,813 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$3,813
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$396.87
-8.49% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
17%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
8.18 / -28.33 / 147.48
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MSI Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $347 (-20%) | +$4,712 | +$4,768 | +$4,869 | +$4,992 |
| $369 (-15%) | +$2,771 | +$2,694 | +$2,710 | +$2,823 |
| $390 (-10%) | +$1,195 | +$889 | +$647 | +$655 |
| $412 (-5%) | +$218 | -$333 | -$975 | -$1,514 |
| $425 (-2%) | -$8 | -$659 | -$1,488 | -$2,815 |
| $434 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$686 | -$1,575 | -$3,682 |
| $442 (+2%) | +$132 | -$560 | -$1,449 | -$3,077 |
| $455 (+5%) | +$549 | -$107 | -$900 | -$1,776 |
| $477 (+10%) | +$1,736 | +$1,219 | +$701 | +$393 |
| $500 (+15%) โ target | +$3,477 | +$3,123 | +$2,840 | +$2,687 |
| $520 (+20%) | +$5,280 | +$5,036 | +$4,858 | +$4,730 |
Uses MSI's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.