Target Price Playground
MSTR
$128.64
๐ก
MSTR IV: 78.0% โ NORMAL
(-13.3% vs 30d avg of 89.9%)
IV is near its 30-day average โ no strong edge either way.
Forward Projection
If price hits $145 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $130 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $15.2 ยท ฮ 0.55
SHORT CALL ยท $140 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $11.59 ยท ฮ 0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MSTR hits $145 by Jun 19: the bull call spread returns +$639 (177.0%) on $361 risked, vs +$1,636 (12.7%) for 100 shares on $12,864. Options give 13.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MSTR is at $145. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MSTR hits $145 by Jun 19
+$639
+177.0% on $361 risked
Max Profit
+$639
If the stock โฅ $140 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$361
Net debit
Break-even
$133.61
+3.86% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
71%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
10.12 / -0.42 / -0.97
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MSTR Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $103 (-20%) | -$188 | -$223 | -$285 | -$361 |
| $109 (-15%) | -$139 | -$170 | -$232 | -$361 |
| $116 (-10%) | -$87 | -$110 | -$163 | -$361 |
| $122 (-5%) | -$32 | -$45 | -$80 | -$361 |
| $126 (-2%) | +$1 | -$5 | -$26 | -$361 |
| $129 (0%) โ spot | +$23 | +$22 | +$11 | -$361 |
| $131 (+2%) | +$45 | +$49 | +$49 | -$240 |
| $135 (+5%) | +$78 | +$90 | +$105 | +$146 |
| $142 (+10%) | +$131 | +$155 | +$197 | +$639 |
| $145 (+13%) โ target | +$160 | +$190 | +$244 | +$639 |
| $148 (+15%) | +$183 | +$217 | +$281 | +$639 |
| $154 (+20%) | +$231 | +$275 | +$356 | +$639 |
Uses MSTR's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.