Target Price Playground
MSTR
$128.64
๐ก
MSTR IV: 78.0% โ NORMAL
(-13.3% vs 30d avg of 89.9%)
IV is near its 30-day average โ no strong edge either way.
Forward Projection
If price hits $115 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $130 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $15.76 ยท ฮ -0.45
SHORT PUT ยท $120 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $11.15 ยท ฮ -0.35
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MSTR hits $115 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$539 (116.9%) on $461 risked, vs $-1,364 (-10.6%) for 100 shares on $12,864. Options give 11.0ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MSTR is at $115. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MSTR hits $115 by Jun 19
+$539
+116.9% on $461 risked
Max Profit
+$539
If the stock โค $120 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$461
Net debit
Break-even
$125.39
-2.53% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
76%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-10.3 / -0.43 / 0.99
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MSTR Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $103 (-20%) | +$295 | +$326 | +$389 | +$539 |
| $109 (-15%) | +$237 | +$259 | +$309 | +$539 |
| $115 (-11%) โ target | +$185 | +$196 | +$228 | +$539 |
| $122 (-5%) | +$118 | +$115 | +$115 | +$318 |
| $126 (-2%) | +$83 | +$71 | +$54 | -$68 |
| $129 (0%) โ spot | +$59 | +$43 | +$15 | -$325 |
| $131 (+2%) | +$37 | +$15 | -$24 | -$461 |
| $135 (+5%) | +$3 | -$26 | -$80 | -$461 |
| $142 (+10%) | -$50 | -$89 | -$164 | -$461 |
| $148 (+15%) | -$99 | -$147 | -$235 | -$461 |
| $154 (+20%) | -$144 | -$198 | -$293 | -$461 |
Uses MSTR's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.