Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MSTR hits $135 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$1,115 (10.2%) on $-1,115 credit (max loss $10,885), vs +$636 (4.9%) for 100 shares on $12,864. Options give 2.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MSTR is at $135. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MSTR Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $103 (-20%) | -$1,330 | -$1,113 | -$850 | -$594 |
| $109 (-15%) | -$966 | -$721 | -$406 | +$49 |
| $116 (-10%) | -$646 | -$381 | -$31 | +$693 |
| $122 (-5%) | -$368 | -$93 | +$272 | +$1,115 |
| $126 (-2%) | -$220 | +$58 | +$422 | +$1,115 |
| $129 (0%) โ spot | -$128 | +$149 | +$509 | +$1,115 |
| $131 (+2%) | -$42 | +$233 | +$588 | +$1,115 |
| $135 (+5%) โ target | +$75 | +$346 | +$688 | +$1,115 |
| $142 (+10%) | +$251 | +$511 | +$822 | +$1,115 |
| $148 (+15%) | +$399 | +$643 | +$917 | +$1,115 |
| $154 (+20%) | +$523 | +$748 | +$983 | +$1,115 |