Target Price Playground
MSTR
$128.64
๐ก
MSTR IV: 78.0% โ NORMAL
(-13.3% vs 30d avg of 89.9%)
IV is near its 30-day average โ no strong edge either way.
Forward Projection
If price hits $140 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $128.64 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $140 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $11.59 ยท ฮ 0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MSTR hits $140 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$2,295 (19.6%) on $11,705 risked, vs +$1,136 (8.8%) for 100 shares on $12,864. Options give 2.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MSTR is at $140. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MSTR hits $140 by Jun 19
+$2,295
+19.6% on $11,705 risked
Max Profit
+$2,295
If the stock โฅ $140 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$11,705
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$117.05
-9.01% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
80%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
55.08 / 11.57 / -22.88
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MSTR Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $103 (-20%) | -$1,840 | -$1,653 | -$1,481 | -$1,414 |
| $109 (-15%) | -$1,370 | -$1,141 | -$904 | -$771 |
| $116 (-10%) | -$938 | -$670 | -$367 | -$127 |
| $122 (-5%) | -$546 | -$244 | +$120 | +$516 |
| $126 (-2%) | -$329 | -$10 | +$384 | +$902 |
| $129 (0%) โ spot | -$192 | +$136 | +$549 | +$1,159 |
| $131 (+2%) | -$61 | +$276 | +$704 | +$1,416 |
| $135 (+5%) | +$125 | +$472 | +$917 | +$1,802 |
| $140 (+9%) โ target | +$343 | +$699 | +$1,159 | +$2,295 |
| $142 (+10%) | +$406 | +$764 | +$1,226 | +$2,295 |
| $148 (+15%) | +$654 | +$1,015 | +$1,477 | +$2,295 |
| $154 (+20%) | +$871 | +$1,229 | +$1,676 | +$2,295 |
Uses MSTR's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.