Target Price Playground
MSTR
$128.64
๐ก
MSTR IV: 78.0% โ NORMAL
(-13.3% vs 30d avg of 89.9%)
IV is near its 30-day average โ no strong edge either way.
Forward Projection
If price hits $120 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $130 ยท Jul '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $18.93 ยท ฮ -0.44
SHORT PUT ยท $120 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $11.15 ยท ฮ -0.35
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MSTR hits $120 by Jun 19: the diagonal put spread returns +$732 (94.1%) on $778 risked, vs $-864 (-6.7%) for 100 shares on $12,864. Options give 14.0ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MSTR is at $120. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MSTR hits $120 by Jun 19
+$732
+94.1% on $778 risked
Max Profit
+$730
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$656
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$134.69
+4.7% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
84%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-8.71 / 1.34 / 5.02
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MSTR Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $103 (-20%) | +$189 | +$242 | +$324 | +$373 |
| $109 (-15%) | +$164 | +$221 | +$322 | +$511 |
| $116 (-10%) | +$130 | +$188 | +$295 | +$705 |
| $120 (-7%) โ target | +$105 | +$160 | +$264 | +$863 |
| $122 (-5%) | +$91 | +$144 | +$244 | +$736 |
| $126 (-2%) | +$65 | +$112 | +$204 | +$530 |
| $129 (0%) โ spot | +$46 | +$90 | +$173 | +$405 |
| $131 (+2%) | +$27 | +$67 | +$140 | +$289 |
| $135 (+5%) | -$3 | +$30 | +$87 | +$132 |
| $142 (+10%) | -$54 | -$35 | -$8 | -$89 |
| $148 (+15%) | -$106 | -$101 | -$105 | -$263 |
| $154 (+20%) | -$158 | -$167 | -$199 | -$398 |
Uses MSTR's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.