Target Price Playground
MSTR
$128.64
๐ก
MSTR IV: 78.0% โ NORMAL
(-13.3% vs 30d avg of 89.9%)
IV is near its 30-day average โ no strong edge either way.
Forward Projection
If price hits $145 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $130 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $15.2 ยท ฮ 0.55
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MSTR hits $145 by Jun 19: the long call returns $-20 (-1.3%) on $1,520 risked, vs +$1,636 (12.7%) for 100 shares on $12,864. Options give 0.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MSTR is at $145. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MSTR hits $145 by Jun 19
$-20
-1.3% on $1,520 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$1,520
Premium paid
Break-even
$145.20
+12.87% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
71%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
55.04 / -11.99 / 21.91
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MSTR Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $103 (-20%) | -$922 | -$1,143 | -$1,377 | -$1,520 |
| $109 (-15%) | -$699 | -$958 | -$1,258 | -$1,520 |
| $116 (-10%) | -$435 | -$725 | -$1,082 | -$1,520 |
| $122 (-5%) | -$130 | -$444 | -$843 | -$1,520 |
| $126 (-2%) | +$72 | -$251 | -$668 | -$1,520 |
| $129 (0%) โ spot | +$215 | -$114 | -$538 | -$1,520 |
| $131 (+2%) | +$363 | +$31 | -$398 | -$1,399 |
| $135 (+5%) | +$596 | +$261 | -$169 | -$1,013 |
| $142 (+10%) | +$1,012 | +$678 | +$257 | -$370 |
| $145 (+13%) โ target | +$1,251 | +$920 | +$511 | -$20 |
| $148 (+15%) | +$1,459 | +$1,132 | +$734 | +$274 |
| $154 (+20%) | +$1,933 | +$1,619 | +$1,253 | +$917 |
Uses MSTR's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.