Target Price Playground
MSTR
$128.64
๐ก
MSTR IV: 78.0% โ NORMAL
(-13.3% vs 30d avg of 89.9%)
IV is near its 30-day average โ no strong edge either way.
Forward Projection
If price hits $115 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $130 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $15.76 ยท ฮ -0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MSTR hits $115 by Jun 19: the long put returns $-76 (-4.8%) on $1,576 risked, vs $-1,364 (-10.6%) for 100 shares on $12,864. Options give 0.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MSTR is at $115. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MSTR hits $115 by Jun 19
$-76
-4.8% on $1,576 risked
Max Profit
+$11,424
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$1,576
Premium paid
Break-even
$114.24
-11.19% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
76%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-45.4 / -10.6 / 21.93
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MSTR Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $103 (-20%) | +$1,625 | +$1,438 | +$1,239 | +$1,133 |
| $109 (-15%) | +$1,204 | +$980 | +$715 | +$490 |
| $115 (-11%) โ target | +$868 | +$616 | +$301 | -$76 |
| $122 (-5%) | +$486 | +$207 | -$157 | -$797 |
| $126 (-2%) | +$302 | +$14 | -$367 | -$1,183 |
| $129 (0%) โ spot | +$188 | -$106 | -$495 | -$1,440 |
| $131 (+2%) | +$79 | -$218 | -$612 | -$1,576 |
| $135 (+5%) | -$74 | -$374 | -$769 | -$1,576 |
| $142 (+10%) | -$301 | -$600 | -$986 | -$1,576 |
| $148 (+15%) | -$498 | -$790 | -$1,152 | -$1,576 |
| $154 (+20%) | -$667 | -$946 | -$1,277 | -$1,576 |
Uses MSTR's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.