Target Price Playground
MSTR
$128.64
๐ก
MSTR IV: 78.0% โ NORMAL
(-13.3% vs 30d avg of 89.9%)
IV is near its 30-day average โ no strong edge either way.
Forward Projection
If price hits $145 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy shares and hold. Unlimited upside, full downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $128.64 ยท ฮ 1.00
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Stock
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MSTR hits $145 by Jun 19: the long stock returns +$1,636 (12.7%) on $12,864 risked, vs $ (None%) for 100 shares on $.
๐ Expiry
Stock-only position โ no expiry. Target date is Jun 19.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MSTR hits $145 by Jun 19
+$1,636
+12.7% on $12,864 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$12,864
If stock โ $0
Break-even
$128.64
+0.0% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
71%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
100.0 / 0.0 / 0.0
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MSTR Price | Today | May 13 | Jun 12 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $103 (-20%) | -$2,573 | -$2,573 | -$2,573 |
| $109 (-15%) | -$1,930 | -$1,930 | -$1,930 |
| $116 (-10%) | -$1,286 | -$1,286 | -$1,286 |
| $122 (-5%) | -$643 | -$643 | -$643 |
| $126 (-2%) | -$257 | -$257 | -$257 |
| $129 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$0 | +$0 |
| $131 (+2%) | +$257 | +$257 | +$257 |
| $135 (+5%) | +$643 | +$643 | +$643 |
| $142 (+10%) | +$1,286 | +$1,286 | +$1,286 |
| $145 (+13%) โ target | +$1,636 | +$1,636 | +$1,636 |
| $148 (+15%) | +$1,930 | +$1,930 | +$1,930 |
| $154 (+20%) | +$2,573 | +$2,573 | +$2,573 |
Uses MSTR's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.