Target Price Playground
MSTR
$128.64
๐ก
MSTR IV: 78.0% โ NORMAL
(-13.3% vs 30d avg of 89.9%)
IV is near its 30-day average โ no strong edge either way.
Forward Projection
If price hits $140 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $128.64 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $120 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $11.15 ยท ฮ -0.35
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MSTR hits $140 by Jun 19: the protective put returns +$21 (0.2%) on $13,979 risked, vs +$1,136 (8.8%) for 100 shares on $12,864.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MSTR is at $140. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MSTR hits $140 by Jun 19
+$21
+0.2% on $13,979 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$1,979
Put floors you at $120
Break-even
$139.79
+8.67% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
80%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
64.91 / -10.16 / 20.94
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MSTR Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $103 (-20%) | -$1,243 | -$1,460 | -$1,723 | -$1,979 |
| $109 (-15%) | -$964 | -$1,209 | -$1,524 | -$1,979 |
| $116 (-10%) | -$640 | -$905 | -$1,255 | -$1,979 |
| $122 (-5%) | -$275 | -$550 | -$915 | -$1,758 |
| $126 (-2%) | -$37 | -$315 | -$679 | -$1,372 |
| $129 (0%) โ spot | +$128 | -$149 | -$509 | -$1,115 |
| $131 (+2%) | +$299 | +$24 | -$331 | -$858 |
| $135 (+5%) | +$566 | +$295 | -$46 | -$472 |
| $140 (+9%) โ target | +$923 | +$660 | +$341 | +$21 |
| $142 (+10%) | +$1,035 | +$775 | +$464 | +$171 |
| $148 (+15%) | +$1,531 | +$1,287 | +$1,013 | +$815 |
| $154 (+20%) | +$2,050 | +$1,825 | +$1,590 | +$1,458 |
Uses MSTR's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.