Target Price Playground
MSTR
$128.64
๐ก
MSTR IV: 78.0% โ NORMAL
(-13.3% vs 30d avg of 89.9%)
IV is near its 30-day average โ no strong edge either way.
Forward Projection
If price hits $150 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $130 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $15.2 ยท ฮ 0.55
LONG PUT ยท $130 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $15.76 ยท ฮ -0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MSTR hits $150 by Jun 19: the long straddle returns $-1,096 (-35.4%) on $3,096 risked, vs +$2,136 (16.6%) for 100 shares on $12,864. Options give 2.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MSTR is at $150. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MSTR hits $150 by Jun 19
$-1,096
-35.4% on $3,096 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$3,096
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$99.04
-23.01% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
63%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
9.64 / -22.59 / 43.84
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MSTR Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $103 (-20%) | +$703 | +$296 | -$138 | -$387 |
| $109 (-15%) | +$504 | +$21 | -$543 | -$1,030 |
| $116 (-10%) | +$389 | -$157 | -$835 | -$1,674 |
| $122 (-5%) | +$356 | -$236 | -$999 | -$2,317 |
| $126 (-2%) | +$375 | -$238 | -$1,035 | -$2,703 |
| $129 (0%) โ spot | +$403 | -$220 | -$1,033 | -$2,960 |
| $131 (+2%) | +$442 | -$188 | -$1,010 | -$2,975 |
| $135 (+5%) | +$523 | -$113 | -$939 | -$2,589 |
| $142 (+10%) | +$711 | +$77 | -$729 | -$1,946 |
| $148 (+15%) | +$961 | +$342 | -$418 | -$1,302 |
| $150 (+17%) โ target | +$1,053 | +$442 | -$300 | -$1,096 |
| $154 (+20%) | +$1,266 | +$673 | -$24 | -$659 |
Uses MSTR's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.