Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MTSI hits $245 by Jun 19: the diagonal put spread returns +$1,263 (105.5%) on $1,197 risked, vs $-1,311 (-5.1%) for 100 shares on $25,811. Options give 20.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MTSI is at $245. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MTSI Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $206 (-20%) | +$261 | +$331 | +$413 | +$362 |
| $219 (-15%) | +$225 | +$311 | +$444 | +$537 |
| $232 (-10%) | +$168 | +$261 | +$425 | +$832 |
| $245 (-5%) โ target | +$93 | +$180 | +$343 | +$1,263 |
| $253 (-2%) | +$38 | +$116 | +$263 | +$815 |
| $258 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | +$70 | +$200 | +$557 |
| $263 (+2%) | -$40 | +$21 | +$131 | +$324 |
| $271 (+5%) | -$103 | -$57 | +$18 | +$18 |
| $284 (+10%) | -$211 | -$194 | -$181 | -$383 |
| $297 (+15%) | -$321 | -$332 | -$378 | -$668 |
| $310 (+20%) | -$428 | -$465 | -$557 | -$863 |