Target Price Playground
MU
$420.59
๐ข
MU IV: 66.4% โ LOW
(-24.1% vs 30d avg of 87.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $470 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $420 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $52.75 ยท ฮ 0.57
SHORT CALL ยท $455 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $37.54 ยท ฮ 0.46
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MU hits $470 by Jun 19: the bull call spread returns +$1,979 (130.1%) on $1,521 risked, vs +$4,941 (11.7%) for 100 shares on $42,059. Options give 11.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MU is at $470. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MU hits $470 by Jun 19
+$1,979
+130.1% on $1,521 risked
Max Profit
+$1,979
If the stock โฅ $455 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,521
Net debit
Break-even
$435.21
+3.48% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
69%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
10.36 / -2.3 / -1.58
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MU Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $336 (-20%) | -$971 | -$1,101 | -$1,316 | -$1,521 |
| $358 (-15%) | -$783 | -$902 | -$1,132 | -$1,521 |
| $379 (-10%) | -$575 | -$668 | -$873 | -$1,521 |
| $400 (-5%) | -$355 | -$408 | -$547 | -$1,521 |
| $412 (-2%) | -$221 | -$245 | -$329 | -$1,521 |
| $421 (0%) โ spot | -$130 | -$136 | -$178 | -$1,462 |
| $429 (+2%) | -$40 | -$26 | -$26 | -$621 |
| $442 (+5%) | +$93 | +$137 | +$203 | +$641 |
| $463 (+10%) | +$309 | +$401 | +$568 | +$1,979 |
| $470 (+12%) โ target | +$382 | +$490 | +$688 | +$1,979 |
| $484 (+15%) | +$514 | +$647 | +$896 | +$1,979 |
| $505 (+20%) | +$703 | +$870 | +$1,174 | +$1,979 |
Uses MU's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.