Target Price Playground
MU
$420.59
๐ข
MU IV: 66.4% โ LOW
(-24.1% vs 30d avg of 87.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $370 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $420 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $49.0 ยท ฮ -0.44
SHORT PUT ยท $385 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $30.44 ยท ฮ -0.32
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MU hits $370 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$1,644 (88.5%) on $1,856 risked, vs $-5,059 (-12.0%) for 100 shares on $42,059. Options give 7.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MU is at $370. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MU hits $370 by Jun 19
+$1,644
+88.5% on $1,856 risked
Max Profit
+$1,644
If the stock โค $385 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,856
Net debit
Break-even
$401.44
-4.55% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
69%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-11.84 / -5.05 / 5.86
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MU Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $336 (-20%) | +$797 | +$917 | +$1,151 | +$1,644 |
| $358 (-15%) | +$565 | +$649 | +$835 | +$1,644 |
| $370 (-12%) โ target | +$421 | +$478 | +$615 | +$1,644 |
| $379 (-10%) | +$322 | +$358 | +$454 | +$1,644 |
| $400 (-5%) | +$78 | +$60 | +$42 | +$188 |
| $412 (-2%) | -$66 | -$116 | -$204 | -$1,074 |
| $421 (0%) โ spot | -$160 | -$230 | -$363 | -$1,856 |
| $429 (+2%) | -$252 | -$342 | -$515 | -$1,856 |
| $442 (+5%) | -$385 | -$502 | -$729 | -$1,856 |
| $463 (+10%) | -$593 | -$748 | -$1,038 | -$1,856 |
| $484 (+15%) | -$782 | -$963 | -$1,283 | -$1,856 |
| $505 (+20%) | -$950 | -$1,147 | -$1,467 | -$1,856 |
Uses MU's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.