Target Price Playground
MU
$420.59
๐ข
MU IV: 66.4% โ LOW
(-24.1% vs 30d avg of 87.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $455 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $420.59 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $455 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $37.54 ยท ฮ 0.46
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MU hits $455 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$7,195 (18.8%) on $38,305 risked, vs +$3,441 (8.2%) for 100 shares on $42,059. Options give 2.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MU is at $455. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MU hits $455 by Jun 19
+$7,195
+18.8% on $38,305 risked
Max Profit
+$7,195
If the stock โฅ $455 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$38,305
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$383.05
-8.92% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
78%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
53.53 / 38.98 / -71.61
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MU Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $336 (-20%) | -$5,636 | -$5,169 | -$4,776 | -$4,658 |
| $358 (-15%) | -$4,019 | -$3,417 | -$2,829 | -$2,555 |
| $379 (-10%) | -$2,537 | -$1,805 | -$1,005 | -$452 |
| $400 (-5%) | -$1,196 | -$352 | +$649 | +$1,651 |
| $412 (-2%) | -$461 | +$440 | +$1,545 | +$2,913 |
| $421 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$933 | +$2,098 | +$3,754 |
| $429 (+2%) | +$439 | +$1,400 | +$2,615 | +$4,595 |
| $442 (+5%) | +$1,057 | +$2,050 | +$3,322 | +$5,857 |
| $455 (+8%) โ target | +$1,658 | +$2,674 | +$3,981 | +$7,195 |
| $463 (+10%) | +$1,979 | +$3,003 | +$4,318 | +$7,195 |
| $484 (+15%) | +$2,776 | +$3,803 | +$5,100 | +$7,195 |
| $505 (+20%) | +$3,460 | +$4,464 | +$5,693 | +$7,195 |
Uses MU's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.