Target Price Playground
MU
$420.59
๐ข
MU IV: 66.4% โ LOW
(-24.1% vs 30d avg of 87.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $400 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $420 ยท Jul '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $58.5 ยท ฮ -0.42
SHORT PUT ยท $400 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $39.42 ยท ฮ -0.37
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MU hits $400 by Jun 19: the diagonal put spread returns +$2,288 (119.9%) on $1,908 risked, vs $-2,059 (-4.9%) for 100 shares on $42,059. Options give 24.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MU is at $400. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MU hits $400 by Jun 19
+$2,288
+119.9% on $1,908 risked
Max Profit
+$2,222
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$1,542
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$454.07
+7.96% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
87%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-5.1 / 4.43 / 15.24
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MU Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $336 (-20%) | +$207 | +$328 | +$487 | +$405 |
| $358 (-15%) | +$184 | +$334 | +$575 | +$804 |
| $379 (-10%) | +$135 | +$298 | +$589 | +$1,400 |
| $400 (-5%) โ target | +$59 | +$218 | +$516 | +$2,235 |
| $412 (-2%) | +$5 | +$155 | +$436 | +$1,596 |
| $421 (0%) โ spot | -$36 | +$105 | +$366 | +$1,199 |
| $429 (+2%) | -$80 | +$50 | +$286 | +$836 |
| $442 (+5%) | -$150 | -$40 | +$151 | +$354 |
| $463 (+10%) | -$276 | -$203 | -$102 | -$298 |
| $484 (+15%) | -$408 | -$377 | -$369 | -$785 |
| $505 (+20%) | -$543 | -$553 | -$628 | -$1,140 |
Uses MU's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.