Target Price Playground
MU
$420.59
๐ข
MU IV: 66.4% โ LOW
(-24.1% vs 30d avg of 87.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $370 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $420 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $49.0 ยท ฮ -0.44
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MU hits $370 by Jun 19: the long put returns +$100 (2.0%) on $4,900 risked, vs $-5,059 (-12.0%) for 100 shares on $42,059. Options give 0.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MU is at $370. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MU hits $370 by Jun 19
+$100
+2.0% on $4,900 risked
Max Profit
+$37,100
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$4,900
Premium paid
Break-even
$371.00
-11.79% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
69%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-43.61 / -36.25 / 70.11
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MU Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $336 (-20%) | +$4,635 | +$4,152 | +$3,658 | +$3,453 |
| $358 (-15%) | +$3,206 | +$2,598 | +$1,893 | +$1,350 |
| $370 (-12%) โ target | +$2,430 | +$1,758 | +$937 | +$100 |
| $379 (-10%) | +$1,932 | +$1,221 | +$330 | -$753 |
| $400 (-5%) | +$812 | +$28 | -$999 | -$2,856 |
| $412 (-2%) | +$211 | -$602 | -$1,677 | -$4,118 |
| $421 (0%) โ spot | -$160 | -$986 | -$2,079 | -$4,900 |
| $429 (+2%) | -$509 | -$1,342 | -$2,443 | -$4,900 |
| $442 (+5%) | -$993 | -$1,829 | -$2,922 | -$4,900 |
| $463 (+10%) | -$1,699 | -$2,518 | -$3,552 | -$4,900 |
| $484 (+15%) | -$2,292 | -$3,072 | -$4,006 | -$4,900 |
| $505 (+20%) | -$2,786 | -$3,510 | -$4,322 | -$4,900 |
Uses MU's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.