Target Price Playground
MU
$420.59
๐ข
MU IV: 66.4% โ LOW
(-24.1% vs 30d avg of 87.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $465 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $420.59 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $400 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $39.42 ยท ฮ -0.37
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MU hits $465 by Jun 19: the protective put returns +$499 (1.1%) on $46,001 risked, vs +$4,441 (10.6%) for 100 shares on $42,059. Options give 0.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MU is at $465. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MU hits $465 by Jun 19
+$499
+1.1% on $46,001 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$6,001
Put floors you at $400
Break-even
$460.01
+9.37% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
72%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
62.77 / -34.21 / 68.19
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MU Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $336 (-20%) | -$4,373 | -$4,930 | -$5,562 | -$6,001 |
| $358 (-15%) | -$3,572 | -$4,235 | -$5,061 | -$6,001 |
| $379 (-10%) | -$2,608 | -$3,349 | -$4,316 | -$6,001 |
| $400 (-5%) | -$1,488 | -$2,273 | -$3,313 | -$6,001 |
| $412 (-2%) | -$744 | -$1,540 | -$2,588 | -$4,783 |
| $421 (0%) โ spot | -$221 | -$1,017 | -$2,058 | -$3,942 |
| $429 (+2%) | +$323 | -$468 | -$1,492 | -$3,101 |
| $442 (+5%) | +$1,179 | +$400 | -$581 | -$1,839 |
| $465 (+11%) โ target | +$2,873 | +$2,141 | +$1,275 | +$499 |
| $484 (+15%) | +$4,317 | +$3,636 | +$2,881 | +$2,367 |
| $505 (+20%) | +$6,026 | +$5,412 | +$4,786 | +$4,470 |
Uses MU's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.