Target Price Playground
MU
$420.59
๐ข
MU IV: 66.4% โ LOW
(-24.1% vs 30d avg of 87.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $485 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $420 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $52.75 ยท ฮ 0.57
LONG PUT ยท $420 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $49.0 ยท ฮ -0.44
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MU hits $485 by Jun 19: the long straddle returns $-3,675 (-36.1%) on $10,175 risked, vs +$6,441 (15.3%) for 100 shares on $42,059. Options give 2.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MU is at $485. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MU hits $485 by Jun 19
$-3,675
-36.1% on $10,175 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$10,175
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$521.75
+24.05% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
61%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
13.22 / -77.53 / 140.14
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MU Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $336 (-20%) | +$888 | -$192 | -$1,294 | -$1,822 |
| $358 (-15%) | +$133 | -$1,196 | -$2,719 | -$3,925 |
| $379 (-10%) | -$313 | -$1,847 | -$3,744 | -$6,028 |
| $400 (-5%) | -$450 | -$2,131 | -$4,297 | -$8,131 |
| $412 (-2%) | -$389 | -$2,128 | -$4,391 | -$9,393 |
| $421 (0%) โ spot | -$291 | -$2,055 | -$4,355 | -$10,116 |
| $429 (+2%) | -$148 | -$1,927 | -$4,243 | -$9,275 |
| $442 (+5%) | +$146 | -$1,638 | -$3,937 | -$8,013 |
| $463 (+10%) | +$837 | -$913 | -$3,095 | -$5,910 |
| $485 (+15%) โ target | +$1,818 | +$153 | -$1,816 | -$3,675 |
| $505 (+20%) | +$2,869 | +$1,308 | -$429 | -$1,704 |
Uses MU's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.