Target Price Playground
MU
$420.59
๐ข
MU IV: 66.4% โ LOW
(-24.1% vs 30d avg of 87.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $470 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $420 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $52.75 ยท ฮ 0.57
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MU hits $470 by Jun 19: the long call returns $-275 (-5.2%) on $5,275 risked, vs +$4,941 (11.7%) for 100 shares on $42,059. Options give 0.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MU is at $470. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MU hits $470 by Jun 19
$-275
-5.2% on $5,275 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$5,275
Premium paid
Break-even
$472.75
+12.4% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
69%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
56.83 / -41.28 / 70.03
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MU Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $336 (-20%) | -$3,747 | -$4,344 | -$4,951 | -$5,275 |
| $358 (-15%) | -$3,073 | -$3,794 | -$4,613 | -$5,275 |
| $379 (-10%) | -$2,245 | -$3,068 | -$4,073 | -$5,275 |
| $400 (-5%) | -$1,262 | -$2,159 | -$3,299 | -$5,275 |
| $412 (-2%) | -$600 | -$1,526 | -$2,715 | -$5,275 |
| $421 (0%) โ spot | -$131 | -$1,069 | -$2,276 | -$5,216 |
| $429 (+2%) | +$361 | -$585 | -$1,800 | -$4,375 |
| $442 (+5%) | +$1,139 | +$191 | -$1,016 | -$3,113 |
| $463 (+10%) | +$2,536 | +$1,605 | +$457 | -$1,010 |
| $470 (+12%) โ target | +$3,052 | +$2,132 | +$1,015 | -$275 |
| $484 (+15%) | +$4,046 | +$3,154 | +$2,106 | +$1,093 |
| $505 (+20%) | +$5,655 | +$4,818 | +$3,893 | +$3,196 |
Uses MU's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.