Target Price Playground
NABL
$4.21
Forward Projection
If price hits $5 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Sell OTM put for premium; get assigned if price drops.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
SHORT PUT ยท $4 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $0.11 ยท ฮ -0.3
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Cash-Secured Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If NABL hits $5 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$11 (2.8%) on $-11 credit (max loss $389), vs +$29 (6.9%) for 100 shares on $421. Options give 0.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if NABL is at $5. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if NABL hits $5 by Jun 19
+$11
+2.8% on $389 max loss
Max Profit
+$11
If the stock โฅ $4 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$389
If stock โ $0 after assignment
Break-even
$3.89
-7.6% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
59%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
29.92 / 0.12 / -0.63
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| NABL Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $3 (-20%) | -$51 | -$51 | -$51 | -$52 |
| $4 (-15%) | -$34 | -$32 | -$31 | -$31 |
| $4 (-10%) | -$19 | -$16 | -$13 | -$10 |
| $4 (-5%) | -$8 | -$5 | -$0 | +$11 |
| $4 (-2%) | -$3 | +$1 | +$5 | +$11 |
| $4 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | +$3 | +$7 | +$11 |
| $4 (+2%) | +$2 | +$5 | +$8 | +$11 |
| $4 (+5%) | +$5 | +$7 | +$10 | +$11 |
| $5 (+7%) โ target | +$6 | +$8 | +$10 | +$11 |
| $5 (+10%) | +$8 | +$9 | +$11 | +$11 |
| $5 (+15%) | +$10 | +$10 | +$11 | +$11 |
| $5 (+20%) | +$10 | +$11 | +$11 | +$11 |
Uses NABL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.