Target Price Playground
NCNO
$17.45
๐ก
NCNO IV: 67.8% โ NORMAL
(-11.6% vs 30d avg of 76.7%)
IV is near its 30-day average โ no strong edge either way.
Forward Projection
If price hits $16 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $18 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $1.9 ยท ฮ -0.44
SHORT PUT ยท $16 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $1.18 ยท ฮ -0.32
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If NCNO hits $16 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$78 (107.5%) on $72 risked, vs $-195 (-11.2%) for 100 shares on $1,745. Options give 9.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if NCNO is at $16. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if NCNO hits $16 by Jun 19
+$78
+107.5% on $72 risked
Max Profit
+$78
If the stock โค $16 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$72
Net debit
Break-even
$16.78
-3.86% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
69%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-12.03 / -0.1 / 0.28
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| NCNO Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $14 (-20%) | +$43 | +$49 | +$59 | +$78 |
| $15 (-15%) | +$33 | +$37 | +$46 | +$78 |
| $16 (-11%) โ target | +$25 | +$27 | +$33 | +$78 |
| $16 (-10%) | +$22 | +$24 | +$29 | +$78 |
| $17 (-5%) | +$11 | +$10 | +$10 | +$20 |
| $17 (-2%) | +$5 | +$3 | -$1 | -$32 |
| $17 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$3 | -$8 | -$67 |
| $18 (+2%) | -$4 | -$8 | -$15 | -$72 |
| $18 (+5%) | -$10 | -$15 | -$24 | -$72 |
| $19 (+10%) | -$19 | -$26 | -$38 | -$72 |
| $20 (+15%) | -$28 | -$35 | -$49 | -$72 |
| $21 (+20%) | -$35 | -$43 | -$57 | -$72 |
Uses NCNO's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.