Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If NCNO hits $19 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$118 (7.9%) on $-118 credit (max loss $1,482), vs +$105 (6.0%) for 100 shares on $1,745. Options give 1.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if NCNO is at $19. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| NCNO Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $14 (-20%) | -$161 | -$138 | -$110 | -$86 |
| $15 (-15%) | -$111 | -$84 | -$49 | +$1 |
| $16 (-10%) | -$67 | -$37 | +$1 | +$89 |
| $17 (-5%) | -$30 | -$0 | +$39 | +$118 |
| $17 (-2%) | -$11 | +$19 | +$57 | +$118 |
| $17 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$30 | +$67 | +$118 |
| $18 (+2%) | +$11 | +$40 | +$76 | +$118 |
| $18 (+5%) | +$25 | +$53 | +$86 | +$118 |
| $19 (+6%) โ target | +$30 | +$57 | +$89 | +$118 |
| $19 (+10%) | +$45 | +$71 | +$99 | +$118 |
| $20 (+15%) | +$62 | +$84 | +$107 | +$118 |
| $21 (+20%) | +$74 | +$94 | +$112 | +$118 |