Target Price Playground
NCNO
$17.45
๐ก
NCNO IV: 67.8% โ NORMAL
(-11.6% vs 30d avg of 76.7%)
IV is near its 30-day average โ no strong edge either way.
Forward Projection
If price hits $19 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $17.45 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $19 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $1.41 ยท ฮ 0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If NCNO hits $19 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$296 (18.4%) on $1,604 risked, vs +$155 (8.9%) for 100 shares on $1,745. Options give 2.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if NCNO is at $19. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if NCNO hits $19 by Jun 19
+$296
+18.4% on $1,604 risked
Max Profit
+$296
If the stock โฅ $19 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,604
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$16.04
-8.07% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
75%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
55.26 / 1.53 / -2.96
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| NCNO Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $14 (-20%) | -$241 | -$225 | -$211 | -$208 |
| $15 (-15%) | -$172 | -$150 | -$129 | -$121 |
| $16 (-10%) | -$108 | -$81 | -$51 | -$33 |
| $17 (-5%) | -$51 | -$18 | +$19 | +$54 |
| $17 (-2%) | -$20 | +$15 | +$58 | +$106 |
| $17 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$37 | +$82 | +$141 |
| $18 (+2%) | +$19 | +$57 | +$104 | +$176 |
| $18 (+5%) | +$45 | +$84 | +$134 | +$228 |
| $19 (+9%) โ target | +$76 | +$117 | +$169 | +$296 |
| $19 (+10%) | +$85 | +$125 | +$178 | +$296 |
| $20 (+15%) | +$119 | +$159 | +$211 | +$296 |
| $21 (+20%) | +$147 | +$187 | +$236 | +$296 |
Uses NCNO's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.