Target Price Playground
NCNO
$17.45
๐ก
NCNO IV: 67.8% โ NORMAL
(-11.6% vs 30d avg of 76.7%)
IV is near its 30-day average โ no strong edge either way.
Forward Projection
If price hits $19 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $17.45 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $17 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $1.4 ยท ฮ -0.36
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If NCNO hits $19 by Jun 19: the protective put returns +$15 (0.8%) on $1,885 risked, vs +$155 (8.9%) for 100 shares on $1,745. Options give 0.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if NCNO is at $19. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if NCNO hits $19 by Jun 19
+$15
+0.8% on $1,885 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$235
Put floors you at $16
Break-even
$18.85
+8.01% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
75%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
64.39 / -1.27 / 2.79
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| NCNO Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $14 (-20%) | -$173 | -$194 | -$219 | -$235 |
| $15 (-15%) | -$140 | -$166 | -$198 | -$235 |
| $16 (-10%) | -$100 | -$129 | -$167 | -$235 |
| $17 (-5%) | -$53 | -$84 | -$125 | -$227 |
| $17 (-2%) | -$22 | -$53 | -$94 | -$175 |
| $17 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | -$31 | -$71 | -$140 |
| $18 (+2%) | +$23 | -$8 | -$47 | -$105 |
| $18 (+5%) | +$59 | +$29 | -$9 | -$53 |
| $19 (+9%) โ target | +$108 | +$80 | +$46 | +$15 |
| $19 (+10%) | +$123 | +$95 | +$62 | +$35 |
| $20 (+15%) | +$191 | +$166 | +$139 | +$122 |
| $21 (+20%) | +$263 | +$241 | +$219 | +$209 |
Uses NCNO's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.