Target Price Playground
NCNO
$17.21
๐ข
NCNO IV: 64.4% โ LOW
(-17.6% vs 30d avg of 78.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $19 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $17.21 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $19 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $1.47 ยท ฮ 0.47
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If NCNO hits $19 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$276 (17.5%) on $1,574 risked, vs +$129 (7.5%) for 100 shares on $1,722. Options give 2.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if NCNO is at $19. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if NCNO hits $19 by Jun 19
+$276
+17.5% on $1,574 risked
Max Profit
+$276
If the stock โฅ $18 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,574
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$15.74
-8.56% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
79%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
53.42 / 1.52 / -2.93
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| NCNO Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $14 (-20%) | -$233 | -$215 | -$201 | -$197 |
| $15 (-15%) | -$166 | -$143 | -$121 | -$111 |
| $15 (-10%) | -$104 | -$76 | -$46 | -$25 |
| $16 (-5%) | -$49 | -$16 | +$22 | +$61 |
| $17 (-2%) | -$19 | +$16 | +$59 | +$113 |
| $17 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | +$36 | +$82 | +$147 |
| $18 (+2%) | +$18 | +$55 | +$102 | +$181 |
| $18 (+5%) | +$43 | +$81 | +$131 | +$233 |
| $19 (+7%) โ target | +$62 | +$101 | +$152 | +$276 |
| $19 (+10%) | +$80 | +$120 | +$171 | +$276 |
| $20 (+15%) | +$112 | +$151 | +$201 | +$276 |
| $21 (+20%) | +$139 | +$177 | +$224 | +$276 |
Uses NCNO's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.