Target Price Playground
NFLX
$103.01
๐ข
NFLX IV: 36.9% โ LOW
(-30.9% vs 30d avg of 53.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $115 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $105 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $5.6 ยท ฮ 0.5
SHORT CALL ยท $110 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $3.6 ยท ฮ 0.37
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If NFLX hits $115 by Jun 19: the bull call spread returns +$300 (150.0%) on $200 risked, vs +$1,199 (11.6%) for 100 shares on $10,301. Options give 12.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if NFLX is at $115. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if NFLX hits $115 by Jun 19
+$300
+150.0% on $200 risked
Max Profit
+$300
If the stock โฅ $110 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$200
Net debit
Break-even
$107.00
+3.87% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
46%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
12.7 / -0.38 / 1.61
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| NFLX Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $82 (-20%) | -$178 | -$190 | -$199 | -$200 |
| $88 (-15%) | -$153 | -$172 | -$193 | -$200 |
| $93 (-10%) | -$116 | -$138 | -$172 | -$200 |
| $98 (-5%) | -$67 | -$86 | -$122 | -$200 |
| $101 (-2%) | -$33 | -$47 | -$77 | -$200 |
| $103 (0%) โ spot | -$9 | -$19 | -$41 | -$200 |
| $105 (+2%) | +$14 | +$10 | -$1 | -$193 |
| $108 (+5%) | +$50 | +$54 | +$59 | +$116 |
| $113 (+10%) | +$107 | +$122 | +$152 | +$300 |
| $115 (+12%) โ target | +$124 | +$143 | +$178 | +$300 |
| $118 (+15%) | +$157 | +$180 | +$221 | +$300 |
| $124 (+20%) | +$198 | +$223 | +$263 | +$300 |
Uses NFLX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.