Target Price Playground
NFLX
$103.01
๐ข
NFLX IV: 36.9% โ LOW
(-30.9% vs 30d avg of 53.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $91 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $105 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $7.28 ยท ฮ -0.5
SHORT PUT ยท $95 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $2.77 ยท ฮ -0.26
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If NFLX hits $91 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$549 (121.7%) on $451 risked, vs $-1,201 (-11.7%) for 100 shares on $10,301. Options give 10.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if NFLX is at $91. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if NFLX hits $91 by Jun 19
+$549
+121.7% on $451 risked
Max Profit
+$549
If the stock โค $95 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$451
Net debit
Break-even
$100.49
-2.45% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
46%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-24.42 / -0.59 / 3.31
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| NFLX Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $82 (-20%) | +$431 | +$473 | +$523 | +$549 |
| $88 (-15%) | +$344 | +$389 | +$461 | +$549 |
| $91 (-12%) โ target | +$271 | +$311 | +$382 | +$549 |
| $93 (-10%) | +$232 | +$266 | +$331 | +$549 |
| $98 (-5%) | +$107 | +$118 | +$139 | +$263 |
| $101 (-2%) | +$32 | +$26 | +$14 | -$46 |
| $103 (0%) โ spot | -$18 | -$34 | -$67 | -$252 |
| $105 (+2%) | -$65 | -$90 | -$142 | -$451 |
| $108 (+5%) | -$131 | -$168 | -$237 | -$451 |
| $113 (+10%) | -$226 | -$272 | -$349 | -$451 |
| $118 (+15%) | -$299 | -$346 | -$409 | -$451 |
| $124 (+20%) | -$353 | -$393 | -$436 | -$451 |
Uses NFLX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.