Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If NFLX hits $110 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$277 (3.0%) on $-277 credit (max loss $9,223), vs +$699 (6.8%) for 100 shares on $10,301. Options give 0.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if NFLX is at $110. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| NFLX Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $82 (-20%) | -$1,060 | -$1,017 | -$980 | -$982 |
| $88 (-15%) | -$692 | -$620 | -$534 | -$467 |
| $93 (-10%) | -$394 | -$303 | -$182 | +$48 |
| $98 (-5%) | -$167 | -$72 | +$54 | +$277 |
| $101 (-2%) | -$62 | +$29 | +$143 | +$277 |
| $103 (0%) โ spot | -$4 | +$82 | +$184 | +$277 |
| $105 (+2%) | +$45 | +$125 | +$215 | +$277 |
| $108 (+5%) | +$106 | +$175 | +$244 | +$277 |
| $110 (+7%) โ target | +$135 | +$197 | +$255 | +$277 |
| $113 (+10%) | +$177 | +$227 | +$267 | +$277 |
| $118 (+15%) | +$221 | +$254 | +$274 | +$277 |
| $124 (+20%) | +$246 | +$267 | +$276 | +$277 |