Target Price Playground
NFLX
$103.01
๐ข
NFLX IV: 36.9% โ LOW
(-30.9% vs 30d avg of 53.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $98 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $105 ยท Jul '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $8.35 ยท ฮ -0.49
SHORT PUT ยท $98 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $3.92 ยท ฮ -0.33
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If NFLX hits $98 by Jun 19: the diagonal put spread returns +$375 (84.7%) on $443 risked, vs $-501 (-4.9%) for 100 shares on $10,301. Options give 17.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if NFLX is at $98. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if NFLX hits $98 by Jun 19
+$375
+84.7% on $443 risked
Max Profit
+$365
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$440
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$104.08
+1.04% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
76%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-15.84 / 0.62 / 4.27
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| NFLX Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $82 (-20%) | +$200 | +$218 | +$231 | +$224 |
| $88 (-15%) | +$172 | +$200 | +$234 | +$237 |
| $93 (-10%) | +$126 | +$159 | +$210 | +$280 |
| $98 (-5%) โ target | +$62 | +$90 | +$140 | +$386 |
| $101 (-2%) | +$21 | +$42 | +$80 | +$188 |
| $103 (0%) โ spot | -$9 | +$6 | +$33 | +$69 |
| $105 (+2%) | -$40 | -$31 | -$17 | -$34 |
| $108 (+5%) | -$87 | -$88 | -$94 | -$160 |
| $113 (+10%) | -$163 | -$178 | -$210 | -$302 |
| $118 (+15%) | -$230 | -$255 | -$299 | -$380 |
| $124 (+20%) | -$287 | -$316 | -$360 | -$417 |
Uses NFLX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.