Target Price Playground
NFLX
$103.01
๐ข
NFLX IV: 36.9% โ LOW
(-30.9% vs 30d avg of 53.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $115 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $105 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $5.6 ยท ฮ 0.5
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If NFLX hits $115 by Jun 19: the long call returns +$440 (78.6%) on $560 risked, vs +$1,199 (11.6%) for 100 shares on $10,301. Options give 6.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if NFLX is at $115. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if NFLX hits $115 by Jun 19
+$440
+78.6% on $560 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$560
Premium paid
Break-even
$110.60
+7.37% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
46%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
50.07 / -5.03 / 17.61
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| NFLX Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $82 (-20%) | -$514 | -$543 | -$559 | -$560 |
| $88 (-15%) | -$454 | -$509 | -$551 | -$560 |
| $93 (-10%) | -$348 | -$434 | -$519 | -$560 |
| $98 (-5%) | -$185 | -$299 | -$431 | -$560 |
| $101 (-2%) | -$57 | -$182 | -$336 | -$560 |
| $103 (0%) โ spot | +$42 | -$88 | -$253 | -$560 |
| $105 (+2%) | +$151 | +$18 | -$151 | -$553 |
| $108 (+5%) | +$333 | +$200 | +$32 | -$244 |
| $113 (+10%) | +$683 | +$558 | +$413 | +$271 |
| $115 (+12%) โ target | +$808 | +$688 | +$554 | +$440 |
| $118 (+15%) | +$1,081 | +$972 | +$861 | +$786 |
| $124 (+20%) | +$1,517 | +$1,427 | +$1,347 | +$1,301 |
Uses NFLX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.