Target Price Playground
NFLX
$103.01
๐ข
NFLX IV: 36.9% โ LOW
(-30.9% vs 30d avg of 53.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $115 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $103.01 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $98 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $3.92 ยท ฮ -0.33
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If NFLX hits $115 by Jun 19: the protective put returns +$807 (7.5%) on $10,693 risked, vs +$1,199 (11.6%) for 100 shares on $10,301. Options give 0.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if NFLX is at $115. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if NFLX hits $115 by Jun 19
+$807
+7.5% on $10,693 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$893
Put floors you at $98
Break-even
$106.93
+3.81% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
46%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
67.08 / -4.15 / 16.71
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| NFLX Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $82 (-20%) | -$863 | -$893 | -$910 | -$893 |
| $88 (-15%) | -$748 | -$808 | -$870 | -$893 |
| $93 (-10%) | -$569 | -$655 | -$762 | -$893 |
| $98 (-5%) | -$321 | -$419 | -$550 | -$893 |
| $101 (-2%) | -$140 | -$238 | -$368 | -$598 |
| $103 (0%) โ spot | -$6 | -$102 | -$225 | -$392 |
| $105 (+2%) | +$137 | +$45 | -$68 | -$186 |
| $108 (+5%) | +$367 | +$284 | +$190 | +$123 |
| $113 (+10%) | +$787 | +$722 | +$661 | +$638 |
| $115 (+12%) โ target | +$932 | +$874 | +$823 | +$807 |
| $118 (+15%) | +$1,240 | +$1,194 | +$1,160 | +$1,153 |
| $124 (+20%) | +$1,718 | +$1,687 | +$1,670 | +$1,668 |
Uses NFLX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.