Target Price Playground
NFLX
$103.01
๐ข
NFLX IV: 36.9% โ LOW
(-30.9% vs 30d avg of 53.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $120 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $105 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $5.6 ยท ฮ 0.5
LONG PUT ยท $105 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $7.28 ยท ฮ -0.5
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If NFLX hits $120 by Jun 19: the long straddle returns +$212 (16.5%) on $1,288 risked, vs +$1,699 (16.5%) for 100 shares on $10,301. Options give 1.0ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if NFLX is at $120. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if NFLX hits $120 by Jun 19
+$212
+16.5% on $1,288 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$1,288
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$92.12
-10.57% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
30%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-0.3 / -9.28 / 35.19
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| NFLX Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $82 (-20%) | +$977 | +$946 | +$944 | +$971 |
| $88 (-15%) | +$582 | +$500 | +$445 | +$456 |
| $93 (-10%) | +$278 | +$135 | -$6 | -$59 |
| $98 (-5%) | +$89 | -$109 | -$345 | -$574 |
| $101 (-2%) | +$37 | -$185 | -$466 | -$883 |
| $103 (0%) โ spot | +$29 | -$204 | -$504 | -$1,089 |
| $105 (+2%) | +$41 | -$198 | -$508 | -$1,281 |
| $108 (+5%) | +$96 | -$143 | -$449 | -$972 |
| $113 (+10%) | +$280 | +$59 | -$203 | -$457 |
| $118 (+15%) | +$561 | +$373 | +$177 | +$58 |
| $120 (+16%) โ target | +$661 | +$484 | +$308 | +$212 |
| $124 (+20%) | +$918 | +$768 | +$634 | +$573 |
Uses NFLX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.