Target Price Playground
NFLX
$103.01
๐ข
NFLX IV: 36.9% โ LOW
(-30.9% vs 30d avg of 53.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $110 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $103.01 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $110 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $3.6 ยท ฮ 0.37
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If NFLX hits $110 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$1,059 (10.7%) on $9,941 risked, vs +$699 (6.8%) for 100 shares on $10,301. Options give 1.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if NFLX is at $110. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if NFLX hits $110 by Jun 19
+$1,059
+10.7% on $9,941 risked
Max Profit
+$1,059
If the stock โฅ $110 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$9,941
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$99.41
-3.49% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
67%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
62.63 / 4.65 / -16.0
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| NFLX Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $82 (-20%) | -$1,724 | -$1,707 | -$1,700 | -$1,700 |
| $88 (-15%) | -$1,244 | -$1,208 | -$1,187 | -$1,185 |
| $93 (-10%) | -$797 | -$734 | -$683 | -$670 |
| $98 (-5%) | -$396 | -$302 | -$207 | -$155 |
| $101 (-2%) | -$182 | -$71 | +$54 | +$154 |
| $103 (0%) โ spot | -$51 | +$69 | +$212 | +$360 |
| $105 (+2%) | +$69 | +$198 | +$356 | +$566 |
| $108 (+5%) | +$232 | +$369 | +$542 | +$875 |
| $110 (+7%) โ target | +$318 | +$458 | +$635 | +$1,059 |
| $113 (+10%) | +$454 | +$594 | +$770 | +$1,059 |
| $118 (+15%) | +$621 | +$752 | +$906 | +$1,059 |
| $124 (+20%) | +$741 | +$856 | +$977 | +$1,059 |
Uses NFLX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.