Target Price Playground
NFLX
$103.01
๐ข
NFLX IV: 36.1% โ LOW
(-32.3% vs 30d avg of 53.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $91 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $105 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $7.28 ยท ฮ -0.5
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If NFLX hits $91 by Jun 19: the long put returns +$672 (92.3%) on $728 risked, vs $-1,201 (-11.7%) for 100 shares on $10,301. Options give 7.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if NFLX is at $91. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if NFLX hits $91 by Jun 19
+$672
+92.3% on $728 risked
Max Profit
+$9,772
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$728
Premium paid
Break-even
$97.72
-5.14% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
46%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-50.37 / -4.24 / 17.59
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| NFLX Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $82 (-20%) | +$1,491 | +$1,489 | +$1,503 | +$1,531 |
| $88 (-15%) | +$1,036 | +$1,009 | +$996 | +$1,016 |
| $91 (-12%) โ target | +$756 | +$709 | +$669 | +$672 |
| $93 (-10%) | +$626 | +$569 | +$513 | +$501 |
| $98 (-5%) | +$274 | +$189 | +$85 | -$14 |
| $101 (-2%) | +$94 | -$3 | -$129 | -$323 |
| $103 (0%) โ spot | -$13 | -$115 | -$251 | -$529 |
| $105 (+2%) | -$110 | -$215 | -$356 | -$728 |
| $108 (+5%) | -$237 | -$343 | -$481 | -$728 |
| $113 (+10%) | -$403 | -$499 | -$616 | -$728 |
| $118 (+15%) | -$520 | -$600 | -$683 | -$728 |
| $124 (+20%) | -$599 | -$660 | -$712 | -$728 |
Uses NFLX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.