Target Price Playground
NOVT
$125.23
๐ข
NOVT IV: 47.0% โ LOW
(-21.3% vs 30d avg of 59.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $110 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $125 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $8.88 ยท ฮ -0.44
SHORT PUT ยท $115 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $4.59 ยท ฮ -0.28
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If NOVT hits $110 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$571 (133.3%) on $429 risked, vs $-1,523 (-12.2%) for 100 shares on $12,523. Options give 10.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if NOVT is at $110. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if NOVT hits $110 by Jun 19
+$571
+133.3% on $429 risked
Max Profit
+$571
If the stock โค $115 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$429
Net debit
Break-even
$120.71
-3.61% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
53%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-16.14 / -0.74 / 3.12
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| NOVT Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100 (-20%) | +$402 | +$447 | +$514 | +$571 |
| $106 (-15%) | +$314 | +$354 | +$427 | +$571 |
| $110 (-12%) โ target | +$257 | +$289 | +$353 | +$571 |
| $113 (-10%) | +$212 | +$236 | +$286 | +$571 |
| $119 (-5%) | +$105 | +$106 | +$110 | +$174 |
| $123 (-2%) | +$41 | +$28 | +$3 | -$202 |
| $125 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | -$21 | -$65 | -$429 |
| $128 (+2%) | -$40 | -$69 | -$127 | -$429 |
| $131 (+5%) | -$96 | -$135 | -$209 | -$429 |
| $138 (+10%) | -$178 | -$226 | -$309 | -$429 |
| $144 (+15%) | -$245 | -$296 | -$370 | -$429 |
| $150 (+20%) | -$298 | -$345 | -$403 | -$429 |
Uses NOVT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.