Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If NOVT hits $130 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$459 (4.2%) on $-459 credit (max loss $11,041), vs +$477 (3.8%) for 100 shares on $12,523. Options give 1.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if NOVT is at $130. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| NOVT Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100 (-20%) | -$1,231 | -$1,146 | -$1,057 | -$1,023 |
| $106 (-15%) | -$815 | -$697 | -$551 | -$396 |
| $113 (-10%) | -$474 | -$336 | -$153 | +$230 |
| $119 (-5%) | -$205 | -$63 | +$124 | +$459 |
| $123 (-2%) | -$75 | +$63 | +$237 | +$459 |
| $125 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | +$132 | +$293 | +$459 |
| $128 (+2%) | +$65 | +$191 | +$338 | +$459 |
| $130 (+4%) โ target | +$118 | +$236 | +$369 | +$459 |
| $131 (+5%) | +$149 | +$263 | +$385 | +$459 |
| $138 (+10%) | +$255 | +$346 | +$429 | +$459 |
| $144 (+15%) | +$327 | +$396 | +$448 | +$459 |
| $150 (+20%) | +$375 | +$425 | +$455 | +$459 |