Target Price Playground
NOVT
$125.23
๐ข
NOVT IV: 47.0% โ LOW
(-21.3% vs 30d avg of 59.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $135 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $125.23 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $135 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $6.14 ยท ฮ 0.4
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If NOVT hits $135 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$1,591 (13.4%) on $11,909 risked, vs +$977 (7.8%) for 100 shares on $12,523. Options give 1.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if NOVT is at $135. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if NOVT hits $135 by Jun 19
+$1,591
+13.4% on $11,909 risked
Max Profit
+$1,591
If the stock โฅ $135 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$11,909
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$119.09
-4.9% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
68%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
60.01 / 7.45 / -20.73
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| NOVT Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100 (-20%) | -$1,953 | -$1,913 | -$1,893 | -$1,891 |
| $106 (-15%) | -$1,392 | -$1,321 | -$1,273 | -$1,264 |
| $113 (-10%) | -$873 | -$766 | -$671 | -$638 |
| $119 (-5%) | -$407 | -$262 | -$109 | -$12 |
| $123 (-2%) | -$155 | +$9 | +$198 | +$364 |
| $125 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | +$176 | +$386 | +$614 |
| $128 (+2%) | +$145 | +$331 | +$559 | +$864 |
| $131 (+5%) | +$344 | +$540 | +$789 | +$1,240 |
| $135 (+8%) โ target | +$510 | +$712 | +$969 | +$1,591 |
| $138 (+10%) | +$626 | +$830 | +$1,088 | +$1,591 |
| $144 (+15%) | +$851 | +$1,049 | +$1,290 | +$1,591 |
| $150 (+20%) | +$1,026 | +$1,209 | +$1,415 | +$1,591 |
Uses NOVT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.