Target Price Playground
NOVT
$125.23
๐ข
NOVT IV: 47.0% โ LOW
(-21.3% vs 30d avg of 59.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $120 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $125 ยท Jul '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $10.46 ยท ฮ -0.43
SHORT PUT ยท $120 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $6.53 ยท ฮ -0.36
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If NOVT hits $120 by Jun 19: the diagonal put spread returns +$466 (118.4%) on $393 risked, vs $-523 (-4.2%) for 100 shares on $12,523. Options give 28.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if NOVT is at $120. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if NOVT hits $120 by Jun 19
+$466
+118.4% on $393 risked
Max Profit
+$449
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$384
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$130.00
+3.81% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
83%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-7.24 / 0.94 / 5.06
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| NOVT Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100 (-20%) | +$95 | +$111 | +$120 | +$86 |
| $106 (-15%) | +$90 | +$117 | +$150 | +$133 |
| $113 (-10%) | +$72 | +$106 | +$161 | +$237 |
| $120 (-4%) โ target | +$35 | +$68 | +$129 | +$466 |
| $123 (-2%) | +$18 | +$48 | +$103 | +$313 |
| $125 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$27 | +$74 | +$191 |
| $128 (+2%) | -$18 | +$3 | +$41 | +$84 |
| $131 (+5%) | -$48 | -$34 | -$14 | -$48 |
| $138 (+10%) | -$99 | -$99 | -$109 | -$203 |
| $144 (+15%) | -$150 | -$162 | -$193 | -$295 |
| $150 (+20%) | -$196 | -$218 | -$261 | -$345 |
Uses NOVT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.