Target Price Playground
NOVT
$125.23
๐ข
NOVT IV: 47.0% โ LOW
(-21.3% vs 30d avg of 59.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $110 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $125 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $8.88 ยท ฮ -0.44
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If NOVT hits $110 by Jun 19: the long put returns +$612 (68.9%) on $888 risked, vs $-1,523 (-12.2%) for 100 shares on $12,523. Options give 5.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if NOVT is at $110. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if NOVT hits $110 by Jun 19
+$612
+68.9% on $888 risked
Max Profit
+$11,612
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$888
Premium paid
Break-even
$116.12
-7.28% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
53%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-44.1 / -6.27 / 21.17
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| NOVT Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100 (-20%) | +$1,633 | +$1,592 | +$1,571 | +$1,594 |
| $106 (-15%) | +$1,129 | +$1,051 | +$978 | +$967 |
| $110 (-12%) โ target | +$870 | +$771 | +$664 | +$612 |
| $113 (-10%) | +$686 | +$572 | +$439 | +$341 |
| $119 (-5%) | +$309 | +$169 | -$13 | -$285 |
| $123 (-2%) | +$116 | -$35 | -$234 | -$661 |
| $125 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$153 | -$358 | -$888 |
| $128 (+2%) | -$105 | -$260 | -$465 | -$888 |
| $131 (+5%) | -$245 | -$397 | -$594 | -$888 |
| $138 (+10%) | -$432 | -$572 | -$738 | -$888 |
| $144 (+15%) | -$572 | -$692 | -$818 | -$888 |
| $150 (+20%) | -$673 | -$770 | -$858 | -$888 |
Uses NOVT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.