Target Price Playground
NOVT
$125.23
๐ข
NOVT IV: 47.0% โ LOW
(-21.3% vs 30d avg of 59.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $140 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $125.23 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $120 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $6.53 ยท ฮ -0.36
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If NOVT hits $140 by Jun 19: the protective put returns +$824 (6.3%) on $13,176 risked, vs +$1,477 (11.8%) for 100 shares on $12,523. Options give 0.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if NOVT is at $140. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if NOVT hits $140 by Jun 19
+$824
+6.3% on $13,176 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$1,176
Put floors you at $120
Break-even
$131.76
+5.21% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
54%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
64.12 / -6.05 / 20.05
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| NOVT Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100 (-20%) | -$1,066 | -$1,129 | -$1,180 | -$1,176 |
| $106 (-15%) | -$902 | -$1,002 | -$1,113 | -$1,176 |
| $113 (-10%) | -$671 | -$801 | -$966 | -$1,176 |
| $119 (-5%) | -$370 | -$516 | -$710 | -$1,176 |
| $123 (-2%) | -$156 | -$304 | -$501 | -$903 |
| $125 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | -$148 | -$340 | -$653 |
| $128 (+2%) | +$165 | +$21 | -$163 | -$403 |
| $131 (+5%) | +$430 | +$294 | +$130 | -$27 |
| $138 (+10%) | +$912 | +$795 | +$671 | +$599 |
| $140 (+12%) โ target | +$1,096 | +$987 | +$877 | +$824 |
| $144 (+15%) | +$1,435 | +$1,340 | +$1,255 | +$1,225 |
| $150 (+20%) | +$1,990 | +$1,918 | +$1,864 | +$1,852 |
Uses NOVT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.