Target Price Playground
NOVT
$125.23
๐ข
NOVT IV: 47.0% โ LOW
(-21.3% vs 30d avg of 59.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $145 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $125 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $10.14 ยท ฮ 0.56
LONG PUT ยท $125 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $8.88 ยท ฮ -0.44
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If NOVT hits $145 by Jun 19: the long straddle returns +$98 (5.1%) on $1,902 risked, vs +$1,977 (15.8%) for 100 shares on $12,523. Options give 0.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if NOVT is at $145. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if NOVT hits $145 by Jun 19
+$98
+5.1% on $1,902 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$1,902
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$144.02
+15.01% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
41%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
11.8 / -14.06 / 42.34
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| NOVT Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100 (-20%) | +$761 | +$646 | +$569 | +$580 |
| $106 (-15%) | +$381 | +$190 | +$11 | -$47 |
| $113 (-10%) | +$120 | -$142 | -$441 | -$673 |
| $119 (-5%) | -$8 | -$322 | -$720 | -$1,299 |
| $123 (-2%) | -$19 | -$353 | -$786 | -$1,675 |
| $125 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$341 | -$784 | -$1,879 |
| $128 (+2%) | +$40 | -$303 | -$747 | -$1,629 |
| $131 (+5%) | +$136 | -$202 | -$629 | -$1,253 |
| $138 (+10%) | +$387 | +$74 | -$292 | -$627 |
| $145 (+16%) โ target | +$796 | +$530 | +$257 | +$98 |
| $150 (+20%) | +$1,158 | +$930 | +$722 | +$626 |
Uses NOVT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.