Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If NTNX hits $36 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$214 (7.2%) on $-214 credit (max loss $2,986), vs +$159 (4.6%) for 100 shares on $3,441. Options give 1.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if NTNX is at $36. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| NTNX Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $28 (-20%) | -$339 | -$302 | -$260 | -$233 |
| $29 (-15%) | -$231 | -$186 | -$129 | -$61 |
| $31 (-10%) | -$139 | -$88 | -$21 | +$111 |
| $33 (-5%) | -$63 | -$10 | +$61 | +$214 |
| $34 (-2%) | -$24 | +$29 | +$99 | +$214 |
| $34 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | +$52 | +$119 | +$214 |
| $35 (+2%) | +$22 | +$73 | +$137 | +$214 |
| $36 (+5%) โ target | +$47 | +$96 | +$156 | +$214 |
| $38 (+10%) | +$90 | +$134 | +$183 | +$214 |
| $40 (+15%) | +$121 | +$160 | +$197 | +$214 |
| $41 (+20%) | +$145 | +$177 | +$205 | +$214 |