Target Price Playground
NVDA
$188.63
๐ข
NVDA IV: 43.2% โ LOW
(-26.4% vs 30d avg of 58.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $165 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $190 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $12.52 ยท ฮ -0.48
SHORT PUT ยท $175 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $6.5 ยท ฮ -0.29
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If NVDA hits $165 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$898 (149.2%) on $602 risked, vs $-2,363 (-12.5%) for 100 shares on $18,863. Options give 11.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if NVDA is at $165. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if NVDA hits $165 by Jun 19
+$898
+149.2% on $602 risked
Max Profit
+$898
If the stock โค $175 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$602
Net debit
Break-even
$183.98
-2.47% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
50%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-18.62 / -0.49 / 5.5
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| NVDA Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $151 (-20%) | +$669 | +$736 | +$830 | +$898 |
| $160 (-15%) | +$541 | +$604 | +$716 | +$898 |
| $165 (-13%) โ target | +$469 | +$523 | +$628 | +$898 |
| $170 (-10%) | +$390 | +$432 | +$518 | +$898 |
| $179 (-5%) | +$227 | +$236 | +$258 | +$478 |
| $185 (-2%) | +$130 | +$117 | +$93 | -$88 |
| $189 (0%) โ spot | +$66 | +$40 | -$13 | -$465 |
| $192 (+2%) | +$5 | -$33 | -$111 | -$602 |
| $198 (+5%) | -$82 | -$136 | -$242 | -$602 |
| $207 (+10%) | -$210 | -$281 | -$405 | -$602 |
| $217 (+15%) | -$316 | -$392 | -$505 | -$602 |
| $226 (+20%) | -$399 | -$470 | -$559 | -$602 |
Uses NVDA's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.