Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If NVDA hits $200 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$650 (3.9%) on $-650 credit (max loss $16,850), vs +$1,137 (6.0%) for 100 shares on $18,863. Options give 0.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if NVDA is at $200. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| NVDA Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $151 (-20%) | -$2,013 | -$1,898 | -$1,787 | -$1,760 |
| $160 (-15%) | -$1,364 | -$1,198 | -$997 | -$816 |
| $170 (-10%) | -$827 | -$627 | -$362 | +$127 |
| $179 (-5%) | -$401 | -$190 | +$90 | +$650 |
| $185 (-2%) | -$195 | +$12 | +$277 | +$650 |
| $189 (0%) โ spot | -$77 | +$123 | +$371 | +$650 |
| $192 (+2%) | +$28 | +$218 | +$445 | +$650 |
| $198 (+5%) | +$161 | +$334 | +$525 | +$650 |
| $200 (+6%) โ target | +$201 | +$367 | +$545 | +$650 |
| $207 (+10%) | +$329 | +$469 | +$599 | +$650 |
| $217 (+15%) | +$444 | +$550 | +$631 | +$650 |
| $226 (+20%) | +$520 | +$597 | +$644 | +$650 |