Target Price Playground
NVDA
$188.63
๐ข
NVDA IV: 43.2% โ LOW
(-26.4% vs 30d avg of 58.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $205 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $188.63 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $205 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $6.45 ยท ฮ 0.34
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If NVDA hits $205 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$2,282 (12.5%) on $18,218 risked, vs +$1,637 (8.7%) for 100 shares on $18,863. Options give 1.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if NVDA is at $205. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if NVDA hits $205 by Jun 19
+$2,282
+12.5% on $18,218 risked
Max Profit
+$2,282
If the stock โฅ $205 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$18,218
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$182.18
-3.42% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
64%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
65.59 / 9.01 / -29.54
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| NVDA Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $151 (-20%) | -$3,205 | -$3,153 | -$3,130 | -$3,128 |
| $160 (-15%) | -$2,347 | -$2,253 | -$2,193 | -$2,184 |
| $170 (-10%) | -$1,550 | -$1,403 | -$1,279 | -$1,241 |
| $179 (-5%) | -$829 | -$625 | -$415 | -$298 |
| $185 (-2%) | -$438 | -$202 | +$61 | +$268 |
| $189 (0%) โ spot | -$196 | +$58 | +$355 | +$645 |
| $192 (+2%) | +$30 | +$300 | +$627 | +$1,022 |
| $198 (+5%) | +$341 | +$629 | +$991 | +$1,588 |
| $205 (+9%) โ target | +$675 | +$976 | +$1,358 | +$2,282 |
| $207 (+10%) | +$783 | +$1,085 | +$1,469 | +$2,282 |
| $217 (+15%) | +$1,136 | +$1,432 | +$1,797 | +$2,282 |
| $226 (+20%) | +$1,410 | +$1,685 | +$2,000 | +$2,282 |
Uses NVDA's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.