Target Price Playground
NVDA
$188.63
๐ข
NVDA IV: 43.2% โ LOW
(-26.4% vs 30d avg of 58.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $180 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $190 ยท Jul '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $14.75 ยท ฮ -0.47
SHORT PUT ยท $180 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $8.2 ยท ฮ -0.36
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If NVDA hits $180 by Jun 19: the diagonal put spread returns +$667 (101.9%) on $655 risked, vs $-863 (-4.6%) for 100 shares on $18,863. Options give 22.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if NVDA is at $180. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if NVDA hits $180 by Jun 19
+$667
+101.9% on $655 risked
Max Profit
+$658
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$650
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$192.25
+1.92% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
81%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-11.09 / 2.17 / 7.35
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| NVDA Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $151 (-20%) | +$286 | +$317 | +$340 | +$303 |
| $160 (-15%) | +$258 | +$306 | +$366 | +$361 |
| $170 (-10%) | +$209 | +$264 | +$356 | +$496 |
| $180 (-5%) โ target | +$131 | +$182 | +$275 | +$779 |
| $185 (-2%) | +$87 | +$131 | +$211 | +$489 |
| $189 (0%) โ spot | +$51 | +$87 | +$153 | +$292 |
| $192 (+2%) | +$13 | +$41 | +$88 | +$120 |
| $198 (+5%) | -$46 | -$31 | -$14 | -$93 |
| $207 (+10%) | -$144 | -$154 | -$183 | -$345 |
| $217 (+15%) | -$239 | -$268 | -$330 | -$495 |
| $226 (+20%) | -$324 | -$366 | -$443 | -$578 |
Uses NVDA's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.