Target Price Playground
NVDA
$188.63
๐ข
NVDA IV: 43.2% โ LOW
(-26.4% vs 30d avg of 58.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $165 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $190 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $12.52 ยท ฮ -0.48
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If NVDA hits $165 by Jun 19: the long put returns +$1,248 (99.7%) on $1,252 risked, vs $-2,363 (-12.5%) for 100 shares on $18,863. Options give 8.0ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if NVDA is at $165. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if NVDA hits $165 by Jun 19
+$1,248
+99.7% on $1,252 risked
Max Profit
+$17,748
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$1,252
Premium paid
Break-even
$177.48
-5.91% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
50%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-47.83 / -8.38 / 31.87
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| NVDA Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $151 (-20%) | +$2,683 | +$2,634 | +$2,617 | +$2,658 |
| $160 (-15%) | +$1,906 | +$1,802 | +$1,713 | +$1,714 |
| $165 (-13%) โ target | +$1,554 | +$1,422 | +$1,290 | +$1,248 |
| $170 (-10%) | +$1,217 | +$1,058 | +$880 | +$771 |
| $179 (-5%) | +$628 | +$426 | +$168 | -$172 |
| $185 (-2%) | +$325 | +$106 | -$184 | -$738 |
| $189 (0%) โ spot | +$143 | -$83 | -$384 | -$1,115 |
| $192 (+2%) | -$23 | -$252 | -$557 | -$1,252 |
| $198 (+5%) | -$243 | -$470 | -$767 | -$1,252 |
| $207 (+10%) | -$539 | -$750 | -$1,004 | -$1,252 |
| $217 (+15%) | -$760 | -$941 | -$1,136 | -$1,252 |
| $226 (+20%) | -$919 | -$1,067 | -$1,202 | -$1,252 |
Uses NVDA's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.